-algebras, measurable functions and independence
A probability is assigned to events, and the family of the events on which it is defined has to be chosen. The rules that this family must obey make it a -algebra, and the same object also describes an amount of information: both readings enter the solution of Exercise 4.
Why -algebras are needed
There are two reasons, one technical and one conceptual. The technical reason is that a probability cannot always be assigned to every subset of When is finite or countable there is no difficulty. Already for the uniform probability on that is, length, one proves that no function defined on all subsets of is -additive, invariant under translations and satisfies this is Vitali’s theorem.
One must therefore choose a family of good subsets, the events, on which is defined. If an event can be spoken of, so can the event not and if events can be spoken of, so can the event that at least one of them occurs. This must be possible for countably many events, not only for finitely many, because probability works with limits all the time. For instance, the event that the chain returns infinitely often to the state is
Figure 1 draws, on one path, the unions over that this intersection runs over.
Figure 1. An instance: a path of a chain on the states 1, 2 and 3 up to time with its visits to the state marked. The slider sets the union of the events over occurs on the path when the shaded window holds a visit. The button draws another path.
The conceptual reason, the one used in Exercise 4, is that a -algebra represents information. A -algebra is the family of the events whose occurrence can be decided by whoever has that information. The larger the -algebra, the more information it contains.
Definition and first consequences
A -algebra on a set is a family of subsets of with the following three properties:
Everything else follows from these three axioms. The empty set belongs to because Countable intersections belong to by De Morgan’s laws, drawn in Figure 2 for two events:
Figure 2. An instance with two events. From left to right: and the union of their complements, and its complement, which is
Finite unions belong to because the sequence can be completed with infinitely many copies of Differences belong to it because The sets and belong to it too, since they are countable combinations of unions and intersections. In short, no set operation that involves at most countably many events leads out of the -algebra.
The pair is called a measurable space, and adding a probability defined on gives the probability space If the third axiom asked only for finite unions, the result would be an algebra, which is not enough to handle limits.
Fundamental examples
The trivial -algebra is the smallest possible, and it corresponds to no information: one knows only that something has happened. The power set is the largest possible -algebra, and it corresponds to complete information: is known exactly. In Exercise 4 the state space which is countable, carries precisely The -algebra generated by an event is it corresponds to knowing only whether has occurred.
The -algebra generated by a countable partition of consists of all unions of blocks, that is, of the sets
One checks easily that it is a -algebra: the complement of a union of blocks is the union of the remaining blocks, and a union of unions of blocks is again a union of blocks. If there are blocks, the -algebra has elements. On a finite every -algebra is of this kind: the blocks, called atoms, are the minimal nonempty elements of the -algebra. Figure 3 draws these -algebras on a set of 4 points.
Figure 3. An instance on a set of 4 points. Top: the trivial -algebra, the one generated by an event the one generated by a partition into 3 blocks and the power set, each drawn by its blocks, with elements for blocks. Bottom: the 8 unions of blocks of the partition into 3 blocks.
The Borel -algebra is the smallest -algebra on that contains all open intervals. It is much smaller than but it contains practically every set that one meets. Its elements cannot be listed explicitly: it is known only through the property of being the smallest -algebra that contains the intervals.
The generated -algebra and two principles of proof
Given any family of subsets of the aim is the smallest -algebra that contains It is built from the observation that an intersection of -algebras is a -algebra: if belongs to all of them, so does and the same holds for countable unions. A union of -algebras, instead, is in general not a -algebra. For instance, on the union of and contains and but not as in Figure 4.
Figure 4. The two -algebras on each drawn by its blocks, and their union, which contains and but not
One then defines
The family over which the intersection runs is not empty, since it contains at least By construction is a -algebra, it contains and it is contained in every other -algebra that contains Two principles of proof come from this definition, and the solution of Exercise 4 uses both.
The principle of minimality states that if is a -algebra and then To show that a generated -algebra is contained in another, it is enough to check the generators. This is the argument of the solution of Exercise 4 for the inclusion each generating event is checked to lie in the larger -algebra.
The principle of good sets serves to show that all the elements of have some property. Let be the family of the good sets, those that have the property. If is a -algebra and then by minimality, that is, all the elements of are good. It is the standard way to reason about -algebras whose elements cannot be listed.
Measurable functions
A function between measurable spaces is measurable if
Preimages are used, and not images, because preimages respect all the set operations:
Images do not: in general Figure 5 draws the first identity for a map between two finite sets.
Figure 5. An instance: a map from a set of 6 points to a set of 4 points, one arrow for each point of Left, a set and its preimage; right, the complement of and its preimage, which is the complement of
This compatibility has a consequence: measurability can be checked on generators. If and for every then is measurable. The proof is the principle of good sets: the family is a -algebra, by the identities above, and it contains
Two special cases follow. If the target space is a countable set with it is enough to check that for every because every subset of is a countable union of singletons. If the target space is with the Borel sets, it is enough to check that for every Moreover, a composition of measurable functions is measurable, because
A random variable is simply a measurable function Measurability is exactly what makes meaningful for every The function is the law of
The -algebra generated by a random variable
Given one defines
It is a -algebra directly, again because preimages respect the set operations. It is the smallest -algebra on that makes measurable, and it is contained in precisely because is a random variable. For several variables one sets
that is, the smallest -algebra that contains all the events the definition used in the solution of Exercise 4. The outer is needed because a union of -algebras is not a -algebra, as Figure 4 shows.
The reading as information is concrete in the discrete case. If takes values in a countable set the events as varies, form a partition of and is the -algebra generated by this partition: its elements are exactly the unions of blocks Hence an event belongs to if and only if it cuts no block: two outcomes and with are both in or both outside it. In other words, if and only if knowing the value of is enough to tell whether has occurred. Figure 6 applies this criterion to an event that can be edited.
Figure 6. An instance: a set of 12 outcomes, split by the values 1 to 6 of into blocks of 2. Clicking an outcome adds it to or removes it, and the figure says whether cuts a block, that is, whether The button empties
Functions of random variables: less information
A function of a random variable carries less information than the variable itself. This fact carries the step of the solution of Exercise 4 in which the states up to time are compared with the vector
Proposition 1. Let be a random variable with values in and let with measurable. Then
Proof (complete). For every we have
and because is measurable, so the event belongs to
The converse also holds, and it is the Doob–Dynkin lemma: if and takes real values, or values in a countable set, then for some measurable In the discrete case the idea is as follows. Every event belongs to so it is a union of blocks hence every block lies entirely in a single block of and it is enough to define as the value of on that block. The result translates exactly between the formal language and the intuition:
In the discrete case, passing to a function of merges blocks of the partition, as in Figure 7. Each block of is a union of blocks of so every event of is also an event of The converse is false: the event belongs to but not to because knowing that does not tell whether the outcome is exactly 2.
Figure 7. An instance: takes the values 1 to 6 and tells whether The 6 blocks of merge into the 2 blocks of and the block an event of cuts the block of
In Exercise 4 the situation is the same: every with is a measurable function of Hence, by Proposition 1, the information of the states up to time is contained in the information of
Random vectors and the product -algebra
Given two measurable spaces and the product -algebra on is the one generated by the rectangles with and It is not the family of the rectangles, since a union of two rectangles is usually not a rectangle, but the -algebra they generate. The discrete case is simple: if and are countable, then because every subset of is a countable union of singletons which are rectangles, as in Figure 8.
Figure 8. An instance with of 4 points and of 5 points. Left, a rectangle right, a subset of as the union of its singletons
Let Then is measurable with respect to if and only if and are measurable, and moreover One direction follows because and are composed with the projections, which are measurable. The other follows from the check on generators, since
In detail, the events and belong to which therefore contains Conversely, the family of the sets of with is a -algebra that contains the rectangles, by the last identity, so it is all of and This equality is what the solution of Exercise 4 uses when it writes the vector and its components carry the same information. Everything extends to any finite number of components.
The same result justifies two technical details of Exercise 4. The first is the measurability of the functions the map
has measurable components, so it is measurable with values in the product, and composing it with gives a measurable function. The second is the measurability of the sections: for a fixed the map is the composition of with and is measurable because its components, the constant and the identity, are. Hence the set belongs to and the event belongs to
Independence
Two events and are independent if Two -algebras and contained in are independent if the same identity holds for every in and every in Two random variables are independent if the -algebras they generate are, that is, if
A family of -algebras is independent if, for every finite subfamily and every choice of we have
A family of random variables is independent if their -algebras are. Independence in pairs is not enough, as a classical example shows. Two fair coins are tossed; is the event that the first shows heads, the event that the second shows heads, and the event that the two coins show the same face. Each event has probability and each intersection of two of them has probability since it is always the event of two heads, so they are independent in pairs. But knowing two of the events gives the third, as Figure 9 shows.
Figure 9. The 4 equally likely outcomes of two fair coins, the first coin by rows and the second by columns, with the events and Every intersection of two of them, and the intersection of all three, is the single outcome of two heads.
Independence is defined on -algebras because the statement that is independent of must mean that anything that can be said through is independent of anything that can be said through and the -algebra is exactly the set of all these statements. Two facts follow at once. First, independence, written passes to sub--algebras: if and then because there are fewer events to check. This is the last step of the argument in the solution of Exercise 4.
Second, functions of independent variables are independent: if and and are measurable, then The reason is that and This sums up in one line the steps of the solution of Exercise 4 that lead to and is a measurable function of hence